200 insider trading probes opened on Kalshi and one quiet change could remake prediction markets overnight

Prediction markets promised something elegant: put money behind beliefs, and the price converges on reality. The wisdom of crowds, sharpened by skin in the game. No pollsters, no pundits, just probabilities inching toward truth as traders stake capital on what they know. However, the moment those markets matter (politically, financially, and socially), the best information stops being “alpha” and starts l…